Short answer: yes, but barely, if the $11 per order is right. At $11 you keep about $1.26 per order (4.4%). The 3.1 ROAS on your dashboard doesn't match your own numbers, so check that first.
Cost per order (price 29.00)
| Line | Calculation | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue kept after refunds | 29.00 × (1 − 6%) | 27.26 |
| Product cost, net of resold returns | 7.50 × (1 − 0.06 × 0.75) | −7.16 |
| Outbound shipping, packaging, pick and pack | 4.20 + 0.60 + 1.00 | −5.80 |
| Payment fees | 29.00 × 2.9% + 0.30 | −1.14 |
| Platform fee | 29.00 × 2% | −0.58 |
| Return shipping and handling | 6% × (4.20 + 1.00) | −0.31 |
| Contribution before ads | 12.26 (42.3% of price) | |
| Ads | −11.00 | |
| Contribution after ads | 1.26 (4.4% of price) |
Two assumptions are mine. Payment and platform fees are not refunded on returns. Resellable returned mugs go back into stock at full cost.
Targets
- Break-even CPA: 12.26 per order.
- Break-even ROAS: 1 / 0.423 = 2.36.
- ROAS for a 10% margin after ads: 1 / (0.423 − 0.10) = 3.10. That is a CPA of about 9.36 at a 29.00 order.
Your ROAS figure doesn't match your ad cost
- At 29.00 per order and 11 in ads, your real ROAS is 29 / 11 = 2.64. That is above break-even (2.36) but well under the 3.10 you need for 10%.
- A dashboard ROAS of 3.1 with 11 per order would mean an average attributed order of about 34.10. That could be multi-item orders or shipping revenue.
- It could also mean the "11 per order" is spend divided by all orders, while the platform's ROAS only counts the orders it claims.
- If the 3.1 is real on a 29.00 order, ads cost about 9.35 per order, and you'd be right at a 10% margin.
- Use total revenue divided by total ad spend for the period, not the platform's number. That is your blended ROAS, and it's the one to compare to 2.36 and 3.10.
Sensitivity (change in profit per order)
- Price ±10% (±2.90): about ±2.58. This is the biggest lever. A 10% discount deeper than your usual one would wipe out your profit.
- Ad cost ±10% (±1.10): ±1.10.
- Product cost ±10% (±0.75): about ±0.72.
- Return rate +1 point: about −0.29. The refunded revenue matters far more than the return shipping.
At 4.4% net, a small rise in ad cost or returns pushes you to break-even. The ad cost per order is the number to pin down.
What to verify
- Blended ROAS and cost per order over a period with a decent number of orders. I don't know how many orders your 11 rests on.
- Whether your payment processor refunds its fee on returns. If it does, you do slightly better than shown.
- Whether the 6% return rate and the 25% unsellable share come from real data.
- Whether you charge shipping to customers. I assumed none.
- Cash flow, since you buy the stock before you sell it.
If you can get ad cost per order down to about 9.35, or raise the price about 2 to 3 dollars, you reach 10%. I can run either scenario.
Real run in an isolated folder with only this skill installed. Only the Skill and Read tools were enabled, so no command was run and no file was written. The store and all numbers are invented and the model had no access to a real store. The per-order figures were checked by hand afterwards. The currency symbol in the answer is the model's own assumption: the request gave no currency.
Qué hace
Calcula el beneficio de un pedido a partir de las cifras del propio vendedor: los ingresos que se conservan después de los reembolsos, el coste del producto (los artículos devueltos que puedan revenderse vuelven al inventario), los gastos de envío, el embalaje, la preparación y el empaquetado de pedidos, las comisiones de pago y de plataforma y los costes de devolución. A partir de ese margen de contribución obtiene el CPA y el ROAS de equilibrio, el ROAS objetivo para el margen que quieras y el precio necesario para alcanzar un margen objetivo. Evalúa los descuentos recalculando todo el modelo con el nuevo precio e indicando el aumento de ventas necesario para obtener el mismo beneficio total, y calcula el valor de vida del cliente a partir del margen y de tasas de recompra medidas, nunca a partir de los ingresos ni de tasas supuestas.
Buenas prácticas integradas
Nunca inventa una cifra, indica de dónde procede cada dato de entrada, señala el ROAS notificado por la plataforma que no coincide con el valor del pedido, muestra una comprobación de sensibilidad (precio, coste publicitario, coste del producto, tasa de devolución) y enumera lo que hay que verificar. Un archivo de referencia contiene las fórmulas y un ejemplo resuelto.
Ideal para
Comprobar si un producto o una campaña publicitaria genera beneficios, fijar precios y decidir hasta cuánto descontar.
Riesgo bajo: solo instrucciones, sin scripts, sin acceso a la red y sin escritura de archivos. Es un método de cálculo, no asesoramiento fiscal, contable ni legal; las tarifas de comisión, el tratamiento fiscal y las normas de las plataformas varían según el país y cambian, por lo que son datos de entrada que debes confirmar. Los resultados solo son tan fiables como las cifras que proporciones y no son previsiones. No puede ver los datos de tu tienda e indica qué datos de entrada son supuestos. En la prueba, el modelo añadió por su cuenta un símbolo de moneda, aunque no se proporcionó ninguno. Skill original de AIBars (MIT). Se probó una vez en una tienda de tazas inventada.